200K MODEL 3’s in 2018?!! My Estimate for Tesla’s Delivery Ramp

Tesla just released their Q4 numbers, so naturally I plugged them into my forecast model to see what that Model 3 delivery ramp will look like. Signup for updates here https://teslanomics.co/join

First let’s see what Tesla reported…

* 29,870 total in Q4
* 15K Model S, 13K Model X, 1,550 Model 3
* +27% YoY
* Best Quarter Ever

Model 3 in Q4
* 2,425 Produced
* 793 in last week
* 1,000 per week now

End of Q1 = 2,500 per week
End of Q2 = 5,000 per week

* 2nd time delaying
* The math doesn’t add up to me

So that’s good right?

Yes and no, but we’ll talk more about that later…

Let’s dive into the numbers and see what this Model 3 ramp looks like using these new figures. For this I’m starting out with an estimate of 1000 per week as of Jan 7th, the first week in 2018

The second data point Tesla gave us is the mid point of 2500 per week by 3/31. That gives us this growth model here…and if you extrapolate this out to see when they’ll hit 5,000 per week it won’t be until MUCH later than they reported. I think this is a realistic model however it doesn’t jive with the rest of Tesla’s statements, so let’s plug those numbers in and see what we get.

So if instead of using the midpoint at 3/31 let’s use the 5K point at 6/30 we get this curve here

This seems aggressive to me and a bit unrealistic. Elon has proven me wrong before so I wouldn’t be surprised here, but just looking at the math it’s hard to see how you get from 2500 to 5000 in that short time frame if the growth pattern truly follows the S-Curve Log model
Now you might be wondering why my ramp doesn’t go all the way to 10K and it’s because I don’t believe they can achieve that fully at the Fremont plant alone.

To be clear, I’m happy to be wrong about this, so for posterity sake let’s see what that ramp might look like. Plugging in the starting point of 1K per week in Jan and 5K by end of June the curve looks a bit more reasonable.

Extrapolating this out we find that they would hit 10K per week somewhere in late 2019 or early 2020, which if it is possible, sounds like a realistic goal to me.

## What this means to you

First – the tax credit
* Depending non the model you believe to be correct, they could either hit the 200K car sold in the US in either Early or Late Q2
* So I’m sticking with my previous estimate of Q2 after running these numbers
* If you need a deeper drive into how the credit works I’ll link a video here for you to check out

Second – Delivery timeline
* Harder to estimate
* 200K or more in 2018 so high chance in US
* Depend on options
* Other countries likely in early 2019 still
* Use the Tesla site for more info
Let me know what you think…