Tesla Model X Crash had Autopilot Engaged – Let’s Talk About This…

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// Model X Crash
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week%E2%80%99s-accident

Model X
* Safest SUV ever
* Couldn’t be flipped in test
* First to 5 stars in every category

Setup
* Driver down 101
* Car follows exit on left
* Drives hits gore point barrier

Important Notes
* Barrier had previously been in crash, so was limited in effectiveness
* Driver had hands off wheel for 6sec prior (which is normal in my view)

What happened?
* Car hits median, driver ejected, later it catches on fire

Aftermath
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/977406284260495360
* Tesla states car was on autopilot
* Worst crash ever
* 2nd autopilot fatal crash, waiting on more details

How could this have happened?

// No, The Model 3 Does NOT Cost More Than a Gas Car
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160351-tesla-model-3-costs-charge-gasoline-car
* Flawed analysis

Here’s the problem…

* assumes 100% supercharger
* Not practical or feasible
* Tesla will restrict your charging rate if so
* Damage to the battery can occur
* Last study I did of 6,000 Tesla owners showed 91% of the time they charge at home

Cherry picked data
* 6 states (Washington, Oregon, California, Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York)
* Used national avg gas price, versus supercharger price in these states

Built tool to show this
https://public.tableau.com/views/TeslaModel3vsGasCar-MonthlyFuelCost/story?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes
* In worst-case scenario there are 6 states where it IS more expensive
* Again, that’s not reality

Start with the data
* https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=2017&year2=2019&vtype=Plug-in+Hybrid
* https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/
* http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA

Pull it together
* Pulled it all together in a google sheet – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nt0-xbanRNpgg_u0taXhCuC3isRBhZLfJ1yz4kCra_Q/edit#gid=0
* https://public.tableau.com/profile/bens#!/vizhome/TeslaModel3vsGasCar-MonthlyFuelCost/comparison-graph?publish=yes

Results
* No, in the real-world a Tesla Model 3 does NOT cost more than even the best hybrid.

// Is Tesla Almost Bankrupt?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-bankrupt-elon-musk-cracks-jokes-after-worst-month-in-7-years-2018-04-01

* We’re at the brink
* Unit economics are good
* Ramp is going well (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/)

How Tesla survives

* 3 pipes
* Operations
* Looking good, but need Model 3 scale
* Investments/CapEx
* Need lots of new factories and equipment
* Financing
* Stock and Bond options tapped out
* Might need more cash, diluting shares
* Moody’s downgraded them making this harder
* Past the point of no return

* They’ll be fine as long as Model 3 ramp continues

// Model 3 Car of the Year by Popular Mechanics
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/g19605464/best-cars-2018/
* Yay!

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